Orchard Homes, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

647
FXUS65 KMSO 130700
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
100 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty winds and low humidity today with increased fire weather
  concerns

- Cooler Thursday into the coming weekend

- Beneficial rain for northwest Montana Friday night into Saturday

A few early-morning showers and thunderstorms have been observed
from southern Idaho County into Lemhi County and southwest
Montana, driven by a weak disturbance and elevated instability.
While rainfall will be minimal, occasional lightning strikes are
expected.

A dry cold front will move through the Northern Rockies this afternoon into
tonight. Its primary impact will be strengthening westerly winds (gusts of
30-40 mph) across the region. The combination of gusty winds and low
relative humidity will create critical fire weather conditions, with the
highest concern over grasslands and sagebrush areas. These winds will also
generate choppy conditions on area lakes, particularly Flathead Lake, where
a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect. Any isolated showers or thunderstorms
with this front will be confined to the Canadian border and southwest
Montana this afternoon and evening.

Westerly upper-level flow will persist Thursday and Friday, keeping
temperatures near seasonal norms and supporting typical afternoon and
evening breezes.

Model guidance indicates another disturbance moving through the Northern
Rockies Friday night into Saturday, shifting the flow to southwesterly.
About half of the ensemble solutions show beneficial rainfall from
Clearwater County, Idaho, into northwest Montana by Saturday evening.
Current consensus suggests 24-hour precipitation totals of 0.10" to 0.50",
with the heaviest amounts likely in the Troy/Yaak region.

A warming and drying trend is expected early next week as southwesterly
flow remains in place. This pattern may still bring subtle disturbances
capable of producing showers and thunderstorms, but their timing and
intensity remain uncertain.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist through Thursday under westerly flow
aloft. Early this morning, a few showers and thunderstorms have
been observed from southern Idaho County into Lemhi County and
southwest Montana, associated with a weak disturbance and elevated
instability. While rainfall will be minimal, occasional lightning
strikes are expected.

A weak cold front will move through this afternoon into the
overnight hours, bringing an increase in westerly winds with
gusts of 25-35 kts. Winds will diminish around sunset at terminal
sites. Aside from a few showers or thunderstorms in southwest
Montana and along the Canadian border, conditions will remain dry.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Flathead Reservation.

     Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for East Beaverhead.

ID...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for
     Palouse/Hells Canyon.

&&

$$